A moment of near consensus

In its latest Manufacturing Report on Business this morning, ISM reported the PMI at 50.7%.  That is down from last month, and just barely on the “growth”
side of 50%.  According to the release…
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the fifth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 47th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
It is interesting that the PMI very closely aligns with the results of a non-scientific “flash poll” of ISM members at the organization’s 2013 International Supply Management Conference wrapping up today in Dallas, Texas.  They were asked “Which way is the economy headed for the remainder of 2013?” and 64% responded “holding steady,” while 29% responded “turning up.” Only 7% responded “going down.” The conference attendees used a system called ThumbTalk that let them respond by sending a text message or making a choice at a mobile web site.
Shortly after the attendees answered the question live, they heard a semiannual economic forecast from ISM’s Bradley Holcomb and Anthony Nieves, who gave positive outlooks for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the economy. (Read them here.) A third economist, Bernard Baumohl, Chief Global Economist, The Economic Outlook Group also forecast growth ahead for the U.S. economy.
Make of this what you will, but I would dare to call it “consensus.” For the moment.

 

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